Gartner’s top end user predictions for 2010

Internet Map. Ninian Smart predicts global com...

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Always a fascinating read for those of us interested in how technology will shape the way we live, work and play – Gartner’s ‘Top End User Predictions for 2010’ does not disappoint. Here is a quick summary of the key points – you can download the full summary report from Gartner.com.

By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets. Not surprising really as the number of services available through the cloud. As a small or startup business you would have to think seriously about cloud offerings for everything before you invest a single dollar on IT systems. CRM is a classic example – you would be hard pressed to build a business case for something other than salesforce.com if you were starting from scratch.

By 2012, India-centric IT service companies will represent 20% of the leading cloud aggregators in the market. The Indian outsourcers are firmly established as part of the ICT landscape. I’m sure that the term ‘offshore’ will disappear from the vocabulary as the boundaries get fuzzier and fuzzier and we accept that business is already truly global.

By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social networks integration and Web socialisation. Like it or not, Facebook is becoming a central component in our online ‘connectedness’. It is predicted to grow to over a billion users by the end of 2010 (it reached the 500 million mark earlier this year). According to Gartner, “Facebook is simply too big not to factor into their B2C strategies”.

By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs. It’s no surprise that the carbon impact of organisations will be more closely scrutinized. Another driver is the fact that many policies are emerging that will penalise organisations for C02 emissions. So if you are not factoring carbon into your business cases now, it’s time to start!

In 2012, 60% of a new PC’s total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on. This shines a new light on how to make your IT a lot greener. While it is still worthwhile to focus on reducing the energy costs of your hardware, it is probably even more important to focus on extending the life of the equipment you already own.

Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide. I would put this in the ‘had to happen’ category – Gartner’s view is essentially “watch this space.”

By 2014, more than three billion of the world’s adult population will be able to
transact electronically via mobile and Internet technology. The driver for this is twofold – the rapid rise in people connected to the Internet and the advances in mobile payment, commerce and banking.

By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web. This signals the rise of alliances between network operators and social networks – with a big impact in the areas of retail, financial services, media, healthcare and telecom.

By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access
device worldwide. In 2012, the number of PCs in use will be around 1.62 billion. The number of Internet connected phones will exceed 1.69 billion units. Interestingly, in 2012 most users will still retain the PC as the primary access device. This is set to change by 2015 when the smart phone overtakes the PC as the primary access device. My take on this is that anyone considering the development of a new website should incorporate mobile access as part of the strategy.

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